Conteúdos
After Storm Isha hit the British Isles this past Sunday, with wind speeds up to 100mph, next in line is storm Jocelyn, which has already been forecast to follow Isha shortly after
Jocelyn won't be a storm quite as intense as Isha was, that's the good thing, however given that the British Islands are still recovering from the storm, it's still going to be well felt – gusts can be up to 80mph in exposed coasts and even 70mph inland
Of course, just like Isha, Jocelyn will have higher winds in the highlands, mainly in Scotland, up to 100mph
Jocelyn is forecast to track a lot more North than Isha did, although the details are still not totally “tuned”, some weather models have it a little closer to the UK and that will definitely affect the way Ireland and England will be affected
In Scotland though it is more likely to be a strong storm, hence why the UK MetOffice decided to issue a amber warning – keep reading after the ad for more info
CURRENT SITUATION AND FORECAST FOR STORM JOCELYN
Storm Jocelyn is currently approaching the British Isles. As we can see from the satellite it is “gathering strength”, much like Isha did, as it transitions from the warmer subtropical waters to the cooler waters in the North Sea
We can easily tell just by looking at satellite that it is tracking norther than Isha – a good thing – but also it remais unclear how much North, and also how strong of a storm it will be
Given latest model forecasts it looks like it might drop down to 960hPA in pressure – a very strong storm system – however the strongest gusts forecast are not even close to Isha
Judging by ICON-EU, UKMO-HD and ARPEGE, as well as some other global models like the GFS or ECMWF it's likely the max winds in the low lands will be around 80mph – however these “HD” models show it sometimes gusting over that, even inland, which might indicate the potential for a few convective gusts, in localized spots – something to look out for
Let's look at Isha in Satellite first, and then jump to the forecast to each country!
IMPACTS IN NORTHERN IRELAND\IRELAND
A blend of several weather models, trying to find an “average” forecast shows that impacts should start in Ireland around 3PM, where winds will start getting in the western coasts around 60mph (100km/h), sometimes 70\75mph (110\120km/h). It will then after 4\5PM start to be felt inland, where most places in the northern half of Ireland will be impacted by winds up to 60mph (100km/h) even inland – which prompted warnings from Met-Éireann
After the initial impact Jocelyn should start to impact Northern Ireland with winds up to 80mph (125\130km/h) possible in exposed coasts up North
Ireland\Northern Ireland will be impacted from 3PM to around late evening (10\11PM) (for Ireland) and 3AM Wednesday (Northern Ireland)
After that the wind should ease
Rain should not be too much of a worry but some places could see up to 30mm of precipitation
The chart below, available at meteociel.fr shows the maximum wind gusts forecast by one of our favorite weather models, ARPEGE
IMPACTS IN ENGLAND\WALES
Southern England will feel this storm, and there may be some disruptions, but the forecast max wind gusts don't really go above 50\55mph – well below Isha's – with peak between 6PM and 12AM, likely, Tuesday
Still care is needed – these are gusts with the potential to still cause some damage
Wales will feel the storm a little bit harder, with gusts up to 60\65mph possible – then again it will still be way below Isha's maximum gusts
However in the exposed coasts gusts as high as 70mph locally can happen – definitely a situation to consider – it's true this storm is the kind of storm the UK is more used to, which does not mean you should let your guard down
In Northern England. however, gusts up to 70 mph are possible even inland, with 75mph likely in very exposed places – these are damagind and concerning wind gusts, likely to cause damage and disruptions. Again not as strong as Isha, but still a strong storm – do not let your guard down just because “it's not bad as the past one” – follow the authorities advice at ALL TIMES
We can see in the chart below, from ICON-EU model, that up to 40\50mm of rain are likely to fall, leading to the risk of flooding
IMPACTS IN SCOTLAND
Due to the track North, Scotland is the country that will most affected by this depression, at least judging by forecast, just like with Isha
The maximum forecast winds are near 90mph for exposed coasts – that's definitely VERY strong wind, likely leading to damage and even risk to like
In the highlands it's likely to gust over 100mph
The effects will be felt from 6PM Tuesday onwards, with the peak likely coming from 12AM to 3AM in Wednesday, for the western coasts, but between 3 to 6AM Wednesday for the northern coasts and inland
This will be not as strong as Isha – that's for certain – but still, maximum precaution is needed as a amber warning is in place by the UKMO
Rain is also forecast to be strong at times, leading to totals around 50mm – possible flooding in places
WAVES
Waves up to 10m (33 ft) are likely, mainly in Northern Ireland and Scotland
This is due to, once again, the track further North
We can see both the wave forecast by GFS and the mean sea level pressure (minimum) from this storm, as it tracks north of the British Isles
Do not understimate Jocelyn just because it is “weaker” than Isha – weather is sometimes unpredictable and can cause more problems that we sometimes antecipate – prevention is key to safety
Charge up everything you have, phones, batteries, powerbanks, get some thermal blankets just in case and keep calm, but protect yourself
WHO ARE WE?
Luso Meteo is a Portuguese weather website\service, focused, of course, in forecasts for our country, but always looking everywhere in the world for intense phenomena – we have been doing it for the past few years now – to forecast and warn in the best way possible
You can usually find these forecasts HERE
We also focus in climate, climate change and its effects
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Keep safe during this storm – and watch out the next 6-8 days – more rain and wind coming – we don't think any more storms will be named, but a surprise one might appear, it's always slightly unpredictable
